There are a lot of different facets to wealth and investment management.  Many of these facets are easy to see – for example, the financial plan that you craft with your adviser, or the investments that your adviser makes on your behalf.

What of those investments that your adviser makes?  Have you ever wondered what goes into them?

These investments have several qualities, a few of which are shared by “the 5 W’s.”  Specifically, “What,” “Why,” and “When.”

What is the most basic question – What investment should the adviser choose.  A stock?  A bond?  Which stock?  Apple, or Disney?

Why involves the rationale behind the investment – the so-called “investment thesis.”  A good adviser should be able to expand upon why a particular investment was made.

Buy Low, Sell High

The right way to invest.

When is a little more tricky.  Once you’ve chosen an investment (what and why), you need to decide when to actually put your money where your mouth is.  It’s the most artful part of investing.  It’s actually one of the few places where real value can be added – or destroyed – by an adviser.  Stocks can be a great buy…every investor should own some.  Apple is also a great company – it’s the largest component of the S&P 500 (almost 4%).  However, should you buy Apple now?  If you need cash, should you sell some Apple now?  How you make that decision matters.

Fear and greed: The wrong way to invest.

The skill of deciding when to buy, hold or sell is – at best – a dark art to many.  A lot of people, including investment and wealth managers, are very good at it.  You hear a lot about “buy low, sell high.”  Unfortunately, what you hear and what happens in reality is actually pretty far apart.  FOMO (“Fear of Missing Out”) usually motivates people to buy things that are up and rising; the opposite of FOMO (whatever that is) usually stops people from buying or selling something at a good price.

If You’re Going to Time the Market, At Least us a Clock.

While I recommend buy and hold to almost every person I meet, one of the undeniable truth of markets is this:  The up-ad-down movement of markets makes people want to buy and sell.

In my own capacity as an investment manager, I often have to make buy and sell decisions.  People always have new money to put to work, and they always have a need to take money out.  I need some way of figuring out what, and when.  As it turns out, over the course of my career I have actually developed a methodology to do so.  It’s an attempt to assign as much science to the art of forecasting as possible.

So if you’re one of those people who wants to buy and sell, Tree Town Investments is proud to unveil “Trading Signals.”

For free.

SPY (Weekly) 2017.6.12

Green means buy, red means sell.

Why is it Free?

The simple answer is because that’s the way the Internet works.  People these days are very reluctant to pay for things they find on the internet, especially if it has no established value to them.  My plan is to establish value to people (as well as a history of forecasting accuracy), then to charge for it later (if I can).  Will it work?  Who knows.  Might as well try though.

In upcoming posts, I’ll be doing two things:

  1. Giving a little bit of insight into what the heck is going on here with these signals, and;
  2. Providing signals themselves (again, for free).

In the meantime, enjoy!

If you’d like to have a deeper conversation about this, please feel free to contact us.

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